SEASONAL HYDROLOGICAL STATUS & OUTLOOK BULLETIN

The river flows during MAM 2026 varied across basins. In Victoria and Kyoga basins, flow was Above normal
to below-normal ranges in different rivers. The Water levels on major lakes (Victoria, Kyoga and Albert)
remained high than the long term mean, indicating much above normal conditions during the March - May
(MAM)2026 season. For groundwater levels analyzed from the stations of Maracha, Bugondo, Bugolobi and
Ntungamo, the levels were generally normal indicating stable storage during MAM 2026.
Meanwhile the June-August 2026 National outlook indicate that, most parts of the country are expected to
receive near normal to below normal (near average to below average) rainfall, drier than normal conditions
expected in Southwestern, and temperatures are expected to be warmer than average. The climate outlook
further indicates high chances of El Niño conditions in SOND 2026, and this is expected to influence regional
weather patterns by; suppressing rainfall and increasing temperatures across East Africa during the JJA season,
enhancing rainfall and increasing flood risk during the September–December 2026 rainfall season.